by billsfan777
Glean insight from one of the game’s best in Pepsi7’s MLB Tourney/GPP Picks (2013 FanDuel Baseball Champion), as he lists picks he’ll actually be targeting in his GPP games below. Each day you can get in-depth analysis by position for FanDuel Tournaments & GPPs. Expert Picks are posted every day there are 4 or more MLB Games, and the picks & analysis will be posted daily by 10 AM EST or 2 PM EST 1
Note: EMac, JMBWngFn & BillsFan777 handle MLB Premium Content on the weekends.
Sunday, June 8th 2014
Starting Pitchers
Homer Bailey – Bailey has been extremely low on luck this year, as he has the highest GB rate of his career, but the highest HR/9 inning rate of his career. Bailey has a 3.54 xfip, which is a sign that his era of 4.99 should come down. The Phillies are a really bad team overall, and Bailey’s upside is tremendous for a tournament.
Clayton Kershaw – You guys know Kershaw is a great pitcher. You guys also know the Rockies mash everything thrown at them at Coors. Kershaw will be lower owned today than any other day of the season. He is the best pitcher in the MLB, and any time you can get him at a low owned percent, you should jump all over him in tournies.
Anibal Sanchez – Sanchez is in a tough spot here, but he was in a tough spot in his last two starts, where he dominated Toronto and Oakland (Two teams that crush righties). Boston sends John Lackey at the Tigers, who many of the Tigers have dominated in their careers, and because of that I expect run support for Sanchez. Expect no one to be on him, but he will be worth the wait for Sunday Night Baseball.
Tim Lincecum – Nothing can better define a GPP pick than Timmy Jim. Lincecum has no hitter ceiling, and a “no outter” floor. Lincecum is always a different guy on the mound, but I have a feeling that being at home vs a Mets team that strikes out a lot, could be a recipe for success for Lincecum.
Catcher
Jonathan Lucroy – Lucroy faces the awful Jeff Locke who had such a low babip in the first half of last year, and his luck finally blew up in his face in the 2nd half. Locke had a rough first start, and facing the scorching bat of Lucroy and company might lead to a repeat.
Miguel Montero – Montero homered yet again last night, and has now hit a HR in 3 straight games. He will look to continue that hot streak against the formerly awful, and now mediocre, Aaron Harang.
Victor Martinez – V-mart at home on SNB on the only site that has him at catcher eligible. He is hitting over .330 this year with 13 HRs and is outproducing every other catcher by far. John Lackey is a decent pitcher, but I have a feeling they have lots of base runners constantly on the move and V-mart should have some RBI opportunities.
First Base
Brandon Moss – Ubaldo Jimenez has been very bad all year vs lefties, and this is the number 1 ranked park for left handed bats. Moss will be pricy and popular, but someone who can hit 2 HRs in a matchup this good.
Adrian Gonzalez – Gonzalez doesn’t hit lefties very well, but I do not think De la Rosa lasts long in this one. A-gon is so cheap and has frustrated numerous owners all weekend at Coors. Any time you can get a guy with A-gon’s resume in a tourney at a likely low owned percent, it’s a good tourney play.
Paul Goldschmidt – Goldy gets to face the Harangatang, who has pitched impressively well this year. This might scare people off Goldy, but if this matchup took place last season, Goldy would be an autoplay. Goldy had 36 HRs, 36 doubles and 15 SB last year, and facing Harang could help get Goldy going in that path again this year.
Second Base
Ian Kinsler – I am not a BVP guy, but Kinsler does own John Lackey (16-38 4 HRs, and just 1 strikeout). If Kinsler can continue to have this success and get on base, he can also do damage with his legs. Lackey allowed 2 SB in his last start, and has allowed 80 in the last 3 years. Kinsler can damage Lackey with his bats and legs, and will be low owned playing in the SNB game.
Ryan Raburn – Raburn hit well vs lefties last year, and it is no secret that that success has not repeated itself this year. However, Joe Saunders is freaking horrendous vs righties, and allowed close to 80 extra base hits vs righties last year. Raburn fits that bill and usually bats cleanup vs southpaws, and is dirt cheap.
Anthony Rendon – I know Rendon was banged up last game, but if he is in the lineup, this is a heck of a matchup for the Nats’ rising star. Eric Stults has been awful vs righties this entire year, and has been getting hurt both at home and on the road. Rendon hits lefties well, and has 10 hits in his last 6 games, including a whopping 4 home runs.
Third Base
Brett Lawrie – Lawrie has been mashing this year, and is now up to 11 home runs on the year. As a Jays fan, I can see he looks locked in at the plate, and he is spraying the ball across the field. He usually bats 5th vs lefties, providing Joey Bats and E5 with protection. He will have some RBI chances today, and while he’s locked in, I like him.
Carlos Santana – Santana has looked locked in his first two games back, and he gets to face Joe Saunders who is awful vs righties. Santana is historically a better hitter from the right side, and he has drawn 3 walks, and has 3 hits in 2 games since returning from the DL, including a massive home run. No one was on him when I rostered him yesterday, and I have a feeling no one will be again.
Ryan Zimmerman – Zimm has been raking since returning from the DL and facing Eric Stults puts him in play at any ball park right now. Matchup, recent history and Zimmerman’s spot in the order make him a great play today.
Shortstop
Hanley Ramirez – Han Ram at Coors vs a lefty is the perfect combo. He is reasonably priced for the upside he provides, and I think he will be a popular, productive hitter today.
Jed Lowrie – Lowrie facing a guy like Ubaldo could be what he needs to really wake up and start hitting. Lowrie is hitting in the number 1 park for LHB’s, and he is facing Ubaldo who’s FIP and xFIP are hovering over 5 vs lefty bats.
Asdrubal Cabrera – Asdrubal Cabrera is in a great spot today vs Joe Saunders, and he has 6 hits in his last 3 games. Asdrubal hits both sides well, and I think he will get a few hits today vs Saunders.
Outfielders
Shin-Soo Choo – Choo faces Justin Masterson who is a 2 pitch pitcher, and his lack of a strikeout pitch vs lefties has killed him this year. Lefties have a .381 wOBA vs Masterson. Fire up Choo as he crushes righties, and lefties crush Masterson.
Scott Van Slyke – Van Slyke crushes lefties and faces De La Rosa at Coors, with a really cheap price. I can get behind this pick in cash and GPP formats.
Rajai Davis – John Lackey stolen base problem will be exploited by Rajai Davis. Davis owns Lackey in his career and if his success continues and he gets on base, don’t be surprised to see Davis have multiple SBs tonight.
Austin Jackson – Jackson is another guy who swipes bases from time to time, but he has shortened his leg kick recently, and it has led to A-Jax reaching base 8 times in his last 3 games via hit or walk. Lackey’s SB problem, and occasional HR problem could make a heating up Jackson a great tourney play.
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